← Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive DTR KL Regionals 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 18 | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.9% | 9 | 3-4-2 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 52.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.4% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 55.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.2% | -6.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.9% | -9.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.2% | +19.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Allen | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.6 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |